Hoping to invest in some property and buy a house this year? Economists at Rabobank have some bad news: predictions show that, over the next two years, house prices in the Netherlands will rise faster than was initially expected.

Dutch house prices to rise by eight percent in 2021

The Dutch bank has recently revised its economic forecasts for the coming two years because the future of the Dutch economy and the impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic doesn’t look as bad as expected. Furthermore, factors such as the national housing shortage and low mortgage interest rates will also contribute to a rise in house prices. 

Last year, economists forecasted a 5,5 percent price increase in 2021, and a 2,5 percent increase in 2022. Now, they predict that houses prices in the Netherlands will rise by eight percent in 2021, and anticipate an average of a four percent increase in 2022. 

This increase will see the average price of a house in the Netherlands rise from 365.000 euros in 2020, to 394.000 euros in 2021 and nearly 410.000 in 2022. The old Rabobank projections would’ve placed the average house price at 385.000 in 2021.

Effect of the coronavirus on the Dutch housing market

Housing market economist Carola de Groot highlights the national unemployment rate as the main reason for the price increase: “We had expected that the corona crisis would lead to fewer sales and ultimately lower price growth and even a decrease in price through rising unemployment and doubt among potential buyers.” But the end of 2020 saw the unemployment rate fall from 4,6 percent in August to 3,9 percent in December.

De Groot also cites the national shortage of affordable housing for the continued increase in prices, as well as low mortgage interest rates - which are expected to stick around for a while. Rabobank expects around 220.000 homes will be sold in 2021, around 15.000 less than the amount sold in 2020, but emphasises that the future of the housing market remains uncertain due to the unpredictability of the coronavirus crisis.