PhD position in the area of modeling and uncertainty

The Department of Mathematics of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam welcomes applications for a fully-funded, 4-year PhD position in Statistical and Probabilistic Modelling in Dutch environmental models.

The main scientific constructs of the scientific discourse that inform policymaking in the Netherlands are the Nitrogen Critical Loads (NCL) and the model AERIUS that uses the OPS model as its calculation core. OPS produces GCN (Grootschalige Concentratiekaarten Nederland) and GDN (Grootschalige Depositiekaarten Nederland) maps. Moreover, AERIUS is used to determine individual contributions of nitrogen emitters as to determine whether such contributor does or does not exceed local NCL values for Nature2000 areas, with legal implications. Still, these two major constructs are informed by a ‘subset’ of data-gathering systems and models with their own statistical procedures. This conglomerate of models with their own outputs and datasets have hardly, if at all, been studied properly concerning their collective uncertainty. That is even more surprising as the impact of all this modelling and empirical data-gathering and use have far reaching societal-economic implications. With this PhD project we want to fill this gap in our understanding. Concretely, we foresee the following elements in the proposed research project:

1. Carry out a detailed analysis of the precise mathematical models discussed above, with special attention about the particular way in which uncertainty is recognized, modeled, quantified and interpreted.
2. Combine the insights from point 1 into a global, overall picture of the nature of uncertainty in the full scientific discourse.
3. Address the scientific-philosophical issues that arise when concretizing statements about uncertainties and probabilities.

We are an interdisciplinary group, and internationalism is at the heart of our research principles, as well as our teaching practice.

The preferred starting date is 01.06.2025 but there is flexibility here.

Applications from all groups currently under-represented in academic posts are especially encouraged. We particularly welcome applications from women and people with an ethnic minority background.

Your duties

• doing research towards writing a PhD thesis
• teaching tasks (roughly 15% of your time), for instance supervising exercise classes

Requirements:

• a (prospective) MSc. degree in Mathematics (or an equivalent thereof) with an emphasis on probability and/or statistics
• willingness and ability to communicate with representatives of various scientific disciplines, including ecology, chemistry and philosophy
• good communication skills in English

Salary Benefits:

A challenging position in a socially involved organization. On full-time basis the remuneration amounts to a minimum gross monthly salary of €2901 (at the start) and a maximum €3707 (in the fourth year). The job profile is based on the university job ranking system and is vacant for 0.8-1.0 FTE.

The appointment will initially be for 1 year. After a satisfactory evaluation of the initial appointment, the contract will be extended for a further 3 years. Additionally, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam offers excellent fringe benefits and various schemes and regulations to promote a good work/life balance, such as:

• 8% holiday allowance and 8.3% end-of-year bonus
• contribution to commuting expenses
• optional model for designing a personalized benefits package
• a maximum of 41 days of annual leave based on full-time employment
• good paid parental leave scheme

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